Nike Is Getting Kicked Out of the S&P 100. China Is Part of the Problem.
Nike is about to lose its S&P 100 seat after nearly 18 years. If your China team uses Nike’s troubles to explain its own weak sales, put Adidas’s results beside them.
Adidas reported 16% currency-neutral growth in Greater China for the first half of 2026. Nike’s Greater China revenue fell 13% on the same currency basis in its financial year ended May 31.
The periods differ, so treat this as a comparison of direction. But that direction matters to anyone signing off a China budget. Two global sportswear brands are getting very different results from Chinese shoppers.
Your team needs to explain where your brand belongs in that picture, down to the product and the price a customer pays.
What Nike’s index exit tells us
Nike is scheduled to leave the S&P 100 before trading opens on September 21. It will remain in the S&P 500, with its New York Stock Exchange listing intact.
The S&P 100 contains a selection of large US companies. The announced changes adjust its membership to better fit the index’s intended market-cap range. China isn’t a stated test for membership.
Still, the loss of that seat is a public measure of how far Nike has fallen. By early September, its market value was roughly $57 billion, about 80% below its 2021 peak.
For a brand owner, the danger is using that headline to make a broad claim about demand. An index decision tells you very little about which shoe a shopper in Shanghai will buy next.
The sales figures give you more to work with. And they make a blanket explanation about foreign brands losing China hard to defend.
Nike’s China decline has continued for eight quarters
Nike’s Greater China revenue fell to $5.847 billion in FY26, down 11% in reported dollars and 13% after removing currency effects. In the fourth quarter, revenue was $1.297 billion, down 12% reported and 17% currency-neutral.
That was the region’s eighth consecutive quarter of year-on-year revenue decline. These results were released in June; they provide the operating context for September’s index news.
The pressure reaches into Nike’s own sales channels. Chinese coverage of the results reported a 14% fourth-quarter decline in its Greater China direct business, including a 25% fall in digital sales and a 9% decline in company stores.
A digital decline that steep deserves a proper diagnosis. It doesn’t tell us how many customers moved to Douyin, bought another brand or waited for a lower price. Those are separate possibilities that require separate evidence.
This distinction matters inside your business. A weak online result can come from fewer visitors, poor conversion or a smaller average order. Returns can eat into it too. Each problem needs a different response.
Ask for that breakdown before approving another campaign. A bigger media budget can get expensive very quickly if the product needs a discount to convert.
Adidas makes the national-brand explanation harder to sell
Adidas’s first-half Greater China growth gives foreign brand owners a reason to examine their own performance more closely. Chinese reporting in August described 13 consecutive quarters of growth in the region.
That record puts a limit on claims that Chinese consumers have collectively abandoned Western sportswear. A foreign brand can still persuade them to spend.
It also puts a limit on the opposite claim. Adidas’s growth doesn’t promise a recovery for every foreign label. Nor can we assume that each sale it gained came out of Nike’s till.
The practical lesson is to get more specific about competition. A company-wide China number bundles together different products, customer groups and reasons to buy. It can hide a healthy category inside a weak business, or weak products behind one successful launch.
For your next China review, pick the competitors a customer would consider beside your main products. Compare the final selling price, including coupons, and how much stock each brand appears to be clearing.
Then examine your own full-price sales and repeat purchases. A familiar global logo has to earn the next order at the price you need.
Nike is taking a large online business away from Topsports
Nike’s China strategy also includes a major change in distribution. On July 22, Topsports announced that its mainland China online sales of Nike products would end from January 1, 2027.
Those sales represented about 22% of Topsports’s revenue in its financial year ended February 28, 2026. Topsports warned of a material negative effect on its business in the short term. Its offline cooperation with Nike will continue.
Taking control of those sales creates work for Nike. Someone must manage the stock, pay to reach customers and handle returns. Control of the channel comes with the bill for running it.
For another foreign brand, this is a reason to inspect what its distributor does. Start with the stock it finances and the customer traffic it brings. Work out which costs move onto your books if the arrangement ends.
Any plan to take sales in-house should explain how much customer demand will follow. Customers who bought through a distributor’s store may have chosen that store for its price or service. Their next purchase is still up for grabs.
What Western brand owners should do now
Require a product-level explanation for weak sales. Ask your China team to identify where you are losing orders and which competing products customers choose. Separate measured evidence from the team’s working theory.
Inspect the price you keep. Review sales after coupons and returns, alongside advertising costs and inventory age. Set a margin limit before adding promotional spend.
Cost the distributor’s job before taking it over. Put a cash figure against inventory funding, customer acquisition, fulfilment and service. Model a slower transfer of customers as well as the expected case.
Choose benchmarks that make your team work harder. Use brands competing for the same purchase at a similar price. Nike’s weak results should prompt a closer review of your business. They shouldn’t lower the standard you accept.
